Express assessment of the risk of cardiovascular diseases in people in the second half of middle age, as a means of pre-diagnostic evaluation and prediction of the effectiveness of rehabilitation measures

Abstract

Purpose. The study is aimed at rapid assessment of cardiovascular disease risk in middle-aged individuals and is relevant from the perspective of modern physical culture and sports rehabilitation, as it promotes early intervention, optimization of rehabilitation measures, and prevention of cardiovascular disease progression. The useful model is designed for rapid diagnosis of cardiovascular disease risk in middle-aged individuals based on an integrated assessment of physiological, hemodynamic, metabolic, and psychoemotional indicators in women aged 36–45. The model is intended for use in sports medicine, physical education and sports rehabilitation, as well as in fitness programs to determine initial conditions and predict the effectiveness of rehabilitation measures. Purpose: develop an express assessment of the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases in middle-aged individuals in order to identify initial disturbances in the functional state of the cardiovascular system and predict the effectiveness of rehabilitation measures.

Material & Methods. The study was conducted at the Women's Health School, with 79 women aged 36-45 participating. The model was constructed using regression analysis based on data obtained from the study of women. It includes only those indicators that have been found to have a statistically significant impact on the risk of cardiovascular disease.

Results. To develop a model for rapid diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in middle-aged women, we used stepwise multiple linear regression. The final model included five indicators that simultaneously had a strong statistical association with CVD risk, represented different areas of functional multistate regulation, and did not show collinearity with each other. To create an interpretive scheme of CVD risk levels based on the constructed regression model, a combined approach was used, which relies on both the actual values of the CVD risk assessment scale and the logic of calculating the regression level. The study used a validated tool that provides a gradation of CVD risk on a point scale: minimal risk – up to 21 points, apparent risk - 22-28 points, detected risk - 29-35 points, maximum risk – 36 points and above. For each risk level, typical predictor values were selected that correspond to the clinically reliable profile of a woman in the second period of mature age. Confirmation of typical average values of body mass index, systolic blood pressure, cervical curvature depth, and anxiety level (SHTlich) for each category allowed us to obtain predicted risk level values that closely match the limits defined in the original scale.

Conclusions. The high prevalence of modified risk factors indicates the presence of preclinical conditions and justifies the need for early implementation of preventive and rehabilitative measures. Express assessment of cardiovascular disease risk in the second period of adulthood is an informative and practically accessible method for early detection of initial functional disorders of the cardiovascular system and stratification by cardiovascular risk level. Statistically significant correlations between rapid risk assessment indicators and functional parameters of the cardiovascular system confirm the prognostic value of this approach for assessing the initial functional status of women in the second period of middle age.